November Newsletter
This is our monthly newsletter that is sent to the clients and subscribers of the DW Slater Company. Here we share market updates for our local markets in the DFW area.
November Newsletter
Now that you have been stuffed with turkey, inundated with Black Friday and Cyber Monday emails, let's talk a little housing market. "Slowing" is still the word we would describe our markets. While it is true that markets will cool in the fall and winter seasons, we are seeing signs that the rapid pace of price appreciation is beginning to peak. The median sales price for Dallas County is actually showing a decline for the first time in 7 years and the rest of the counties are showing minimal price increases year over year. Inventories are rising, houses are staying on the market longer and volume is down. US Today reported last week that DFW is considered #1 at risk of collapse. We have had such a rapid increase in a short amount of time that the pace is unsustainable. There are several things that impact real estate values. We have had a huge influx of population and job growth in North Texas which has fueled the rapid rise in home prices. Mortgage interest rates have been rising and affordability becomes an issue as many are getting priced out of the market. What about oil? Houston is more impacted by oil than the DFW area, however, there are global and national impacts when oil prices drop so dramatically We will continue to watch its impacts.
In other news, we had the first Esports stadium open up here in Arlington this weekend. This is the largest one in North America. Is this the future of sports? Did you go?
Here are the numbers for November in DFW counties as well as the northern counties of Denton & Collin:
OCTOBER 2018
Denton County
$309,500 | +4.7%
$309,500 | +4.7%
Collin County
$335,000 | +6.3%
$335,000 | +6.3%
Dallas County
$223,000 | -1.1%
$223,000 | -1.1%
Tarrant County
$229,000 | +8.2%
$229,000 | +8.2%
The sale prices are still up in Denton, Collin and Tarrant County and now down in Dallas County YoY.
OCTOBER 2018
Denton County
$139 | +5.3%
$139 | +5.3%
Collin County
$138 | +3.0%
$138 | +3.0%
Dallas County
$130 | +4.8%
$130 | +4.8%
Tarrant County
$120 | +8.1%
$120 | +8.1%
The median price per square feet is still up in all four counties. The percentage is single digit and no longer double digit from last year.
OCTOBER 2018
Denton County
31 | +29.2%
31 | +29.2%
Collin County
38 | +31.0%
38 | +31.0%
Dallas County
17 | 0.0%
17 | 0.0%
Tarrant County
20 | +17.6%
20 | +17.6%
Houses are starting to stay on the market longer. The number of days on the market for Denton, Collin & Tarrant Counties have increased. Dallas is flat YoY. It is of note that the numbers are still low. Marketing times are still short at less than 2 months but increases are occurring.
OCTOBER 2018
Denton County
3.1 | +24.0%
3.1 | +24.0%
Collin County
3.6 | +20.0%
3.6 | +20.0%
Dallas County
3.0 | +15.4%
3.0 | +15.4%
Tarrant County
2.3 | +9.5%
2.3 | +9.5%
The supply of homes is up in all 4 counties. Denton, Collin, and Dallas counties are at 3 months and Tarrant at a little over 2 months. This is a big sign of a slowing market.
OCTOBER 2018
Denton County
1,055 | -8.5%
1,055 | -8.5%
Collin County
1,205 | -4.1%
1,205 | -4.1%
Dallas County
1,859 | -8.4%
1,859 | -8.4%
Tarrant County
2,183 | -5.2%
2,183 | -5.2%
The number of sales in down in all 4 counties, which is also a sign that the market is slowing more than just a seasonal slowing.
Enjoy this month's post which discusses the value of a real estate appraisal. We appreciate your reading and sharing of this post.
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Slowing is definitely a word that's getting lots of print right now. It makes sense and we have to call trends like we see them. Keep up the great work!
ReplyDeleteYes, it is definitely what I am seeing too. The WSJ article I referred to is using the word collapse which might be a bit too dramatic. I see slowing and peaking. We are definitely changing from the super hot market it has been in for several years now.
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