August Newsletter
This is the monthly newsletter we send to clients and subscribers
The kids are now back in school and we are enjoying the last few days of August. We recently received some much needed rain and these pretty rain lilies (pictured above) popped up in our yard. We enjoyed them while they lasted as we know that we are entering the time of the season where things will start to change. It's still hot but it will start to cool down, the leaves will turn and then drop as fall will arrive. We are definitely seeing some signs of the cooling of the real estate market in North Texas. The double-digit price increases that we have experienced in the last few years are now just low single-digit increases. The inventories are slightly up and marketing times are lengthening. Some of this is certainly seasonal as the market typically does cool this time of year, however when looking at the data compared to the same time last year we are seeing some signs of slowing down. Here's a look at this month's numbers:
JULY 2018
Denton County
$320,000 | +5.9%
$320,000 | +5.9%
Collin County
$342,000 | +5.2%
$342,000 | +5.2%
Dallas County
$249,100 | +7.3%
$249,100 | +7.3%
Tarrant County
$239,000 | +6.2%
$239,000 | +6.2%
All four counties are still showing price increases YoY but these increases are single-digit percentages which are less than the double-digit percentages we had seen last year. A chart showing the median sales price for the past ten years has been provided for a more historical perspective on how much and how fast the prices in North Texas have risen.
JULY 2018
Denton County
3.1 | +10.7%
3.1 | +10.7%
Collin County
3.7 | +19.4%
3.7 | +19.4%
Dallas County
2.6 | 0.0%
2.6 | 0.0%
Tarrant County
2.4 | +9.1%
2.4 | +9.1%
Inventory is up in Denton, Collin and Tarrant Counties. Dallas County is flat YoY. Increasing inventory is a sign of the market slowing but it is noted that the month's supply is still between 2 and 3 months. Supply less than 3 months is typically considered an undersupply. The market is still considered to be in undersupply but if this trend continues it will start to be more balanced.
•JULY 2018
•Denton County
1,419 | -2.5%
1,419 | -2.5%
•Collin County
1,640 | -1.1%
1,640 | -1.1%
•Dallas County
2,180 | -4.0%
2,180 | -4.0%
•Tarrant County
2,711 | +0.2%
2,711 | +0.2%
When looking at volume, the number of sales is down for all counties with the exception of Tarrant County. This trend is only slight but it also is a sign of cooling.
JULY 2018
Denton County
18 | +50.0%
18 | +50.0%
Collin County
19 | +35.7%
19 | +35.7%
Dallas County
13 | +8.3%
13 | +8.3%
Tarrant County
11 | 0.0%
11 | 0.0%
The number of days on the market has increased in Denton, Collin, and Dallas counties. The number of days on the market for Tarrant County is flat YoY. The median number of days for properties is still low but if this trend continues the market will slow as marketing times are lengthened.
Takeaway
The median sale prices are still increasing in all four counties but we are seeing signs of an increase in supply, increase in marketing times and a decrease in the number of sales. These changes are very subtle but bear watching. As mortgage rates have been increasing and many are getting priced out of the market, affordability may be a key factor impacting the markets here in North Texas. We will continue to watch these trends to see if they continue. Sign up for our newsletter and we'll keep you informed!
Our thanks to the Lake Ray Roberts Rotary club for the invitation to speak about our local housing markets this month.
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Happy August. I hope you guys are well. It's fascinating to see your median price trend graphs. In my market in Sacramento we saw an enormous increase in value before 2005, a huge tank in prices until 2011, and then an uptick over the past six years. It looks like your market didn't fluctuate much before it began increasing and was more or less flat-ish until it wasn't in this last stretch. Hefty upticks, but without the same crazy crash we had in my market.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Ryan! You are exactly right we did not have a large increase in value before the meltdown. We have had huge price increases beginning in 2013 and then it really began to accelerate in 2014 when Toyota announced that it was moving it's headquarters here (4,000 jobs), then in 2015 Liberty Mutual and JP Morgan chase made similar announcements (5,000 and 6,500 jobs) This created huge demand and we had little supply. It has been a seller's market for several years now but it may be trying to reach more of a balance as the prices have increased so much that many are priced out of the market. Thanks as always for your commentary and insight.
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